(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Yoon Woo Shin = "The financial market and domestic consumption could suffer losses of at least 100 trillion won due to contraction." This is how OpenAI's generative artificial intelligence (AI) ChatGPT analyzed the short-term impact of martial law. On the 11th, Yonhap Infomax used AI tools like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini to examine the economic impact of the unprecedented situation of martial law declaration and presidential impeachment that unfolded on December 3. Since the extraordinary events of martial law and presidential impeachment motion last December, opinions vary on the scale of economic losses due to the unstable political situation. Some estimate that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) evaporated by martial law exceeds 6 trillion won, while others diagnose that tangible and intangible losses combined could reach up to 900 trillion won. Regarding the economic repercussions of the impeachment crisis, ChatGPT presented specific numbers based on cases from other countries and past examples in South Korea, while Gemini responded that it's difficult to calculate the damage amount. First, ChatGPT estimated the loss due to martial law to be at least 100 trillion won or more. This figure was derived by referencing the negative growth case of 1980 during the May 18 Gwangju Democratic Movement, the growth reduction during the 2014 Thai military coup, and the economic contraction during the 2019 Hong Kong protests. It reflects losses in the financial market due to foreign investment outflows, domestic consumption contraction, and increased interest costs due to national credit rating downgrades. ChatGPT diagnosed that if the martial law situation is prolonged, hundreds of trillions of won in damage could occur due to decreased investment and slowed economic growth. The loss due to impeachment was estimated at 20 to 50 trillion won. ChatGPT explained that the economic impact of impeachment is determined by how long political uncertainty persists, noting that during the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye in 2016, stock market volatility increased but quickly stabilized. However, it stated that foreign investment funds would flow out and exchange rates would fluctuate, leading to GDP losses due to suppressed corporate investment and reduced consumption resulting in lower growth rates. In conclusion, ChatGPT's analysis is that in the short term, financial market shocks and investment contraction could cause losses of 20 to 50 trillion won, and if political uncertainty persists, damages could increase to over 100 trillion won. ChatGPT even concluded that martial law has a greater impact than impeachment when comparing the economic effects of the two. It provided the rationale that impeachment increases uncertainty in the short term, but damages are limited once political stability is restored. However, there are limitations in predicting the actual impact as this is a simple calculation of the economic effects of the impeachment crisis.

AI Chatbot (PG)
[Produced by Min-ji Kang] Illustration

In reality, Gemini said it's very difficult to estimate the exact amount of damage to the Korean economy due to entering an impeachment crisis as a single figure, and did not provide specific numbers. The reason is that various variables interact complexly, making it impossible to calculate the damage amount. Gemini also said it's difficult to accurately predict and quantify this because it can affect not only short-term shocks but also long-term growth potential reduction or increased social costs in various ways. It explained that the background for accurately measuring the damage is also difficult because effects can indirectly appear, such as investment sentiment contraction, consumption contraction, and social unrest. However, Gemini assessed that the negative impact on the economy is clear, evaluating that economic growth will slow down as various economic activities contract, including investment contraction, consumption contraction, and financial market instability, which could lead to weakened national competitiveness in the long term. In addition, it diagnosed that inflation and credit rating downgrades could be experienced, and in the long term, it could lead to growth slowdown, deterioration of national image, and deepening social polarization. Gemini suggested that maintaining political stability and minimizing economic uncertainty is important, implying that resolving the chaotic political situation is our urgent task.

ChatGPT analysis on martial law and impeachment

ywshin@yna.co.kr (End)
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