DRAM Spot Prices Turn Downward in February - Fixed Transaction Prices Remain Steady

(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Youn Gyo Jung = Spot prices for memory DRAM, considered a leading indicator for the semiconductor market, turned downward again in February.

DRAM spot prices, which had retreated for five consecutive months in the second half of last year, halted their decline and managed a slight rebound at the start of the new year. However, the reversal to a downward trend in February suggests that the industry slowdown continues.

According to Yonhap Infomax semiconductor prices (screen number 6536) and market research firm DRAMeXchange, the closing price of DDR4 8G(1Gx8) 2666, a mainstream DRAM product, was $1.723 as of February 28.

The price fell by about 1.03% over the month. This follows a rebound of about 0.34% in the previous month before turning downward again.

The price of DDR4 8G(1Gx8) 2666 had reached $2 at the end of July last year but turned downward from August.

DRAM spot prices refer to temporary transaction prices between dealers and consumers. While they don't account for a large portion of the overall DRAM market, they are significant in reflecting immediate market sentiment.

The spot price for DDR3 4Gb 512Mx8 1600/1866, the cheapest product group, was $0.77 as of February 28, remaining at the same level as a month earlier.

The spot price for DDR3 4Gb 512Mx8 1600/1866 has shown a steady downward trend over the past year.

Fixed transaction prices, which are futures prices for DRAM, remained steady.

The average fixed transaction price for DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8), a general-purpose DRAM product, was $1.35 last month, maintaining the same level for four months since November last year.

DRAM fixed transaction prices had been on an upward trend in the first half of last year, surpassing $2 in April for the first time since December 2022.

The fixed price for DRAM, which had maintained $2.1 from April to July last year, slightly decreased to $2.05 in August, but then plummeted to $1.7 in September and has remained at $1.35 since November.

NAND fixed transaction prices continued their rebound.

The average fixed transaction price for 128Gb 16Gx8 MLC, a general-purpose NAND flash product for memory cards and USBs, was $2.29 in February, up 5.52% from $2.17 the previous month. This follows a 4.32% increase in January.

Prices had plummeted by 29% each in October and November last year, followed by an additional 3.25% retreat in December.

Regarding these price trends, TrendForce, a Taiwanese market research firm, assessed that "on the demand side, major PC manufacturers (OEMs) increased production in anticipation of U.S. government tariff hikes."

Device shipments have been revised upward from Q4 last year to Q2 this year, and PC OEMs' DRAM inventory is analyzed to have decreased rapidly.

Many PC OEMs and DRAM suppliers completed Q1 module contract negotiations last month, with transaction prices falling by 10-15%.

The emergence of 'DeepSeek', a low-cost, high-performance generative AI model from China, has also led to a surge in DDR5 prices. Global small and medium-sized AI model developers are expected to participate more actively in the market.

TrendForce anticipates that DRAM prices will fall by 8-13% in Q1 this year.

NAND prices and sales are also expected to decline.

TrendForce predicted that "although manufacturers are actively reducing production volumes in Q1 this year, the effects of the traditional off-season cannot be avoided."

In Q1, which is seasonally slow, final customers' inventory restocking is expected to slow down, with order volumes and contract prices all plummeting.

As a result, the industry's NAND sales may decrease by up to 20% compared to the previous quarter.

ygjung@yna.co.kr

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