(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Sun Young Jung – On the 19th, dealers in Seoul’s foreign exchange market projected that the dollar-won exchange rate would move higher into the 1,470 won range.


The main driver was the release of the September US nonfarm payrolls report, which had been delayed due to the US federal government shutdown but showed a marked improvement.


US nonfarm payrolls in September increased by 119,000 from the previous month, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 50,000.


However, the unemployment rate rose to a relatively high 4.4%.


The robust jobs data dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.


Meanwhile, renewed concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble in the US equity market led to a decline in major stock indices.


Market participants expect the dollar to strengthen on risk aversion and a drop in the domestic stock market, but also anticipate caution over possible intervention by South Korean authorities.


Dealers also noted that the dollar-won rate could be influenced by potential dollar-yen selling intervention by Japanese authorities.


In the New York non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the one-month dollar-won contract rose, with the final quote at 1,472.10 won (midpoint) overnight.


Taking into account the recent one-month swap point of -2.20 won, this is 6.40 won higher than the previous Seoul spot market close of 1,467.90 won.


The expected trading range for the dollar-won rate today is projected at 1,465.00–1,477.00 won.


A Bank Dealer

“The offshore NDF rate has already surpassed 1,470 won, and with the strong US September jobs data, there is potential for further gains. However, if Japan issues verbal intervention and the dollar-yen rate shifts to yen strength during the session, the dollar-won could follow suit. The 1,470 won level is relatively high, so there may be resistance at the top, but we need to see if the rate can break above this level during regular trading.”

Expected range: 1,465.00–1,475.00 won


B Bank Dealer

“Considering offshore trading, the market is likely to open in the 1,470 won range. Despite the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed remains hawkish, so the dollar is expected to stay strong. With renewed debate over an AI bubble, the stock market correction is likely to continue, supporting a strong dollar and risk-off sentiment.”

Expected range: 1,468.00–1,477.00 won


C Bank Dealer

“Due to risk-off sentiment from tech stock sell-offs in New York, the dollar-won is expected to settle in the 1,470 won range. Long positions, which had paused due to concerns over official intervention, may resume, pushing the rate toward the upper 1,470s. However, verbal and actual intervention to control the pace will likely cap the upside.”

Expected range: 1,470.00–1,478.00 won


syjung@yna.co.kr


(End)

All content has been translated by AI.
Copyright © Yonhap Infomax Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited.