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(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Sung Jin Kim – The US federal government shutdown, which delayed the release of September nonfarm payrolls by about seven weeks, paradoxically enhanced the reliability of the data. The extended collection period resulted in a significantly higher initial response rate compared to recent trends.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the 20th (local time), the initial response rate for the September establishment survey, which underpins the nonfarm payrolls report, reached 80.2%. This marks the first time since December 2019 (81.5%) that the initial response rate has exceeded 80%.
Since the onset of the pandemic, the initial response rate for the establishment survey has steadily declined, with recent figures often falling below 60%.
This downward trend in the initial response rate has been cited as a key reason for frequent and significant revisions to nonfarm payrolls in subsequent releases. As the headline figures have repeatedly diverged from initial estimates, concerns have grown over the reliability of the nonfarm payrolls data.
For example, the second estimate for August nonfarm payrolls, released alongside the September data, showed a decrease of 4,000 jobs. This is a reversal from the initial estimate, which reported an increase of 22,000 jobs.
The initial response rate for August was just 56.7%, while the second response rate jumped to 89.2%.
The BLS explained that the September establishment survey included data collected on the normal schedule before the shutdown, as well as data electronically self-submitted by businesses during the shutdown, resulting in a higher-than-usual response rate. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, was completed on the normal schedule before the shutdown.
September nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 from the previous month, more than double the market consensus of 50,000 and the largest gain since April (158,000).
sjkim@yna.co.kr
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