'GDPNow' Holds at 4.2%—Highest Level Since Q3 Estimate Began

(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Sung Jin Kim = The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's 'GDPNow' model, which provides real-time estimates of U.S. economic growth, projected third-quarter GDP growth at an annualized rate of 4.2% as of the 21st (local time).

This figure is unchanged from the estimate released on the 19th and marks the highest level since the Q3 projection began on July 31 (2.3%). The 4.2% estimate is more than double the Federal Reserve's potential growth rate estimate of 1.8%.

The Atlanta Fed explained that, after incorporating recent economic indicators such as the September employment report released the previous day, the real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growth rate edged slightly lower, while the real private investment growth rate was revised up from 4.8% to 4.9%.

Due to the prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown—the longest on record—the Atlanta Fed had temporarily relied on private sector data to update its model, but resumed incorporating official economic indicators from the 17th of this month.

The advance estimate (first release) of Q3 GDP, originally scheduled for September 30, has yet to be rescheduled. The revised estimate (second release), initially set for the 26th of this month, is also expected to be adjusted.

According to the 'Blue Chip Consensus', which compiles private sector forecasts, Q3 growth estimates generally range from the high 1% to the mid-3% level.

sjkim@yna.co.kr

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