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(New York=Yonhap Infomax) Jin Woo Choi—This week (November 24–28, US Eastern Time), the New York stock market is expected to experience heightened volatility amid a shortened trading period.
On November 20, despite strong earnings from NVIDIA Corp., the market was gripped by sharp swings, with the gap between the session high (+2.58%) and low (−2.31%) approaching 5 percentage points.
The same pattern emerged on the final trading day of last week, November 21. Even as comments from John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revived expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the market continued to see wild fluctuations.
This reflects a market environment where positive news is increasingly viewed as an opportunity to take profits, underscoring weakening investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite Index has declined for three consecutive weeks, losing 6.12% over that period.
Charlie Ashley, portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds, noted, “Such a reversal signals that bullish sentiment is fading. Investors are seizing the post-NVIDIA rally as a chance to lock in gains.”
Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, added, “The initial reaction to NVIDIA’s results and employment data was clearly positive, but the immediate sell-off is a stark contrast to the past six months. This time, we’re seeing a swift move to profit-taking after gains.”
Another notable trend is the strong correlation between equities and the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin plunged 9.98% last week, at one point tumbling as much as 14.77% intraday.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, explained, “Bitcoin acts as an amplifier of risk-on and risk-off sentiment. Given the high leverage in crypto, market stress first appears there before spilling over into equities.”
Some analysts suggest that margin calls on crypto investors are prompting them to liquidate tech stocks, adding to market volatility.
This week, headlines will remain in focus as investor sentiment stays fragile. With ongoing debate over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, market participants are closely watching the Fed’s policy direction.
Ashley commented, “If this marks the start of a broader correction, the December FOMC meeting will take on even greater significance. Should the Fed hold rates steady, elevated capital costs could further weigh on valuations.”
Key data to watch falls on November 25, when investors will see the ADP weekly private employment report. Its importance has grown after the cancellation of the October jobs report.
September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales figures will also be released simultaneously. Although these indicators are delayed due to a temporary US federal government shutdown, they could trigger outsized market reactions given the current fragile sentiment.
These data points will provide insight into US consumer spending power, wholesale price trends, and inflation in items that feed into the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
On November 26, weekly initial jobless claims will be published—a key gauge of the US labor market.
The market will be closed on November 27 for Thanksgiving, and will close early at 13:00 (03:00 KST) on November 28.
This week, investors should also monitor earnings from Best Buy Co. (November 25), a major US electronics retailer, as a barometer of consumer sentiment.
Some speculate that former President Donald Trump, known for his sensitivity to stock market moves, could intervene—a phenomenon dubbed the “Trump put.”
On November 21, reports that the Trump administration was considering partially lifting export controls on graphics processing units (GPUs) also fueled upward pressure on equities.
Outside the US, the UK’s Autumn Budget announcement (November 26) is seen as a major event. Market reactions will depend on its contents, with potential spillover effects for US markets.
Key Events and Speeches
- November 24
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)
- November 25
- ADP Weekly Private Employment (4-week average)
- Producer Price Index (September)
- Retail Sales (September)
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September)
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)
- Pending Home Sales (October, preliminary)
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (November)
- Dallas Fed Services Index (November)
- Corporate Earnings: Best Buy, Hewlett-Packard (HP), Autodesk, Dell
- November 26
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Durable Goods Orders (September)
- UK Autumn Budget
- November 27
- Thanksgiving Holiday—Market Closed
- November 28
- NYSE and Nasdaq Early Close at 13:00
jwchoi@yna.co.kr
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