JPMorgan Warns Oil Could Plunge to $30s per Barrel by End-2027 Without Output Cuts

(New York=Yonhap Infomax) Jin Woo Choi – JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned on the 24th (local time) that Brent crude oil prices could collapse into the $30-per-barrel range by the end of 2027 if no further production cuts are implemented.

According to a report released by JPMorgan, the pace of oil supply growth this year and next is expected to be three times faster than demand growth.

The bank estimates that about half of this increase will come from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+.

If this trend continues, JPMorgan projects an oversupply of 2.8 million barrels per day next year and 2.7 million barrels per day in 2027.

Based on these projections, JPMorgan forecasts Brent crude could fall to $42 per barrel in 2027, potentially dropping into the $30s by year-end if no production cuts are made.

However, the bank emphasized that this scenario assumes no output cuts at all. Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s Head of Global Commodities Strategy, noted, “The likelihood of such a severe imbalance materializing is low.”

Assuming production cuts are implemented, JPMorgan maintained its Brent crude price forecast at $58 per barrel for next year and $57 per barrel for 2027.

jwchoi@yna.co.kr

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