[Today's Forex Dealer Expected Exchange Rate Range]Dollar-Won Expected to Remain Heavy Around 1,470 as Authorities Monitor FX Market

(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Sun Young Jung – On the 25th, dealers in Seoul's foreign exchange market anticipated that the dollar-won exchange rate would remain heavy in the 1,470 won range.

Market participants are closely watching for any response from South Korea's foreign exchange authorities as the dollar-won rate remains elevated.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Bank of Korea, and other FX authorities have formed a four-party consultative body with the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the National Pension Service to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

Attention is focused on whether the National Pension Service's strategic FX hedging will lead to dollar selling pressure.

Recently, FX authorities have also convened exporters and securities firms to discuss measures for stabilizing the exchange rate.

In New York, the recovery prospects for tech stocks were buoyed by Google's artificial intelligence (AI) service Gemini 3.0, reviving risk appetite among investors.

In the New York non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the one-month dollar-won contract declined.

The one-month dollar-won NDF was last quoted at 1,472.80 won (mid) overnight.

Taking into account the recent one-month swap point of -2.15 won, this is 2.15 won lower than the previous session's spot closing price of 1,477.10 won in the Seoul FX market.

The expected trading range for the dollar-won rate today is projected at 1,467.00–1,480.00 won.

A Bank Dealer

Although the domestic stock market may see a risk-on sentiment due to overnight Google news, continued net selling of nearly 3 trillion won ($2.2 billion) by foreign investors last Friday suggests ongoing dollar demand. The downside for the exchange rate appears firm. The 1,475.00 won level is perceived as an intervention threshold, likely capping further gains, so a range-bound session near 1,470 won is expected.

Expected range: 1,467.00–1,477.00 won

B Bank Dealer

With expectations for additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, risk appetite is recovering, which may lead to a pause in the exchange rate's upward movement. Importers' settlement demand and FX conversion for overseas stock investments could support real dollar demand, but caution over possible intervention and exporter FX supply may weigh on the rate.

Expected range: 1,470.00–1,478.00 won

C Bank Dealer

Considering global dollar trends and offshore trading, the dollar-won rate is expected to open in the mid-1,470 won range. If funds accumulated from foreign investors' net stock sales are converted into dollars, the rate could rise. However, strong stabilization efforts by FX authorities and the National Pension Service's hedging stance may temper bullish sentiment.

Expected range: 1,470.00–1,480.00 won

syjung@yna.co.kr

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Exchange Rate Data Table

Key Trend: The dollar-won exchange rate remains elevated, with authorities closely monitoring for intervention as risk appetite recovers in global markets. The 1,470–1,480 won range is seen as a critical band, with 1,475.00 won viewed as a potential intervention level.