Expert Views on September Retail Sales

(New York=Yonhap Infomax) Jeong Ho Jin – While the September U.S. retail sales data is considered somewhat dated, most analysts interpret it as signaling a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Oliver Allen, Senior Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, commented on the 25th (local time), "September retail sales are largely old news at this point, but a range of high-frequency and survey-based indicators suggest that spending growth has slowed significantly so far in the fourth quarter." He added, "A subdued labor market and tariff-driven price increases continue to weigh on real incomes, indicating that this slowdown is likely to persist."

Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said, "As we head into the year-end shopping season, it does not appear that consumer spending will surpass last year's levels." He noted, "The U.S. economy has shown an imbalance, with affluent consumers supporting overall spending while vulnerable groups have cut back, partly due to the federal government shutdown."

Cardillo added, "The fact that consumers are divided means the economy has slowed and continues to slow," and argued, "This is another reason why a rate cut in December is warranted."

Tim Ghriskey, Portfolio Strategist at Ingalls & Snyder, stated, "The key takeaway today was the weakness in retail sales," emphasizing, "A very broad range of retail categories showed softness."

"While this was largely expected, what surprised the market was that the actual figures fell short of consensus," he said. "However, since this data is somewhat outdated, it is unlikely to have a major impact on the market."

Slawomir Sroczynski, Head of Fixed Income at Crown Agents Investment Management, remarked, "The September data, regardless of how much it deviates from expectations, will not change the big picture." He added, "If the data diverges too much from forecasts, the market will question its quality."

Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Anils Asset Management, pointed out, "Retail sales before the shutdown posted a tepid 0.2% increase," and noted, "The shutdown did not help the already weakening trend in consumer spending."

He further commented, "Halting rate cuts could deal a bigger blow to sentiment than the actual impact of rate reductions," and added, "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell does not need to become the 'Grinch who stole Christmas.'"

jhjin@yna.co.kr

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