'GDPNow' Q3 Growth Estimate Revised Down to 4.0%—Consumption and Investment Weaken

(Seoul=Yonhap Infomax) Sung Jin Kim – The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model, which provides real-time estimates of U.S. economic growth, projected third-quarter GDP growth at an annualized rate of 4.0% as of the 25th (local time).

This marks a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from the previous estimate of 4.2% released on the 21st. The prior figure had been the highest since the Atlanta Fed began its Q3 projections on July 31 (2.3%).

The Atlanta Fed explained that the latest revision reflects recent economic indicators, including September retail sales. As a result, the real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growth rate was revised down from 3.4% to 3.2%, while the real private investment growth rate was lowered from 4.9% to 4.4%.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, September retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown from the previous month’s 0.6% increase.

Core retail sales (control group)—which exclude volatile categories such as autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services and are used in GDP PCE calculations—fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first decline since April.

The Blue Chip Consensus, which aggregates private-sector forecasts, shows third-quarter growth estimates generally ranging from the high 1% to the mid-3% level.

sjkim@yna.co.kr

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