(Sejong=Yonhap Infomax) Wook Choi – South Korea’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain in the mid-2% range for a second consecutive month in November, driven by surging petroleum prices amid a persistently strong won-dollar exchange rate.


According to a Yonhap Infomax survey of nine domestic and international securities firms released on the 26th, consumer prices are projected to have risen 2.4% in November from a year earlier.


After falling into the 1% range in August due to SK Telecom Co.’s mobile fee discounts, the consumer price growth rate rebounded to 2.1% in September and 2.4% in October.


If the consensus forecast is realized, inflation will have stayed in the mid-2% range for two straight months.


By institution, iM Securities offered the highest forecast at 2.7%, while Samsung Securities presented the lowest at 2.2%. Other institutions expect inflation to range between 2.3% and 2.5%.


November Consumer Price Inflation Forecast
[Provided by Yonhap Infomax]


Experts attribute the upward pressure on consumer prices to rising import costs caused by the elevated dollar-won exchange rate. In particular, petroleum products are expected to see a sharp price increase, reflecting both the high exchange rate and a reduction in the fuel tax cut.


“Consumer prices will continue to rise due to higher import prices stemming from the exchange rate,” said Sang-hyun Park, researcher at iM Securities.


Ji-uk Choi, researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, added, “Petroleum prices are likely to surge significantly due to the reduced fuel tax cut and the strong exchange rate.”


However, some analysts expect prices for agricultural products and personal services—which temporarily spiked last month due to the extended Chuseok holiday—to normalize in November.


Seong-tae Jeong, researcher at Samsung Securities, said, “Prices for agricultural goods, travel services, and airfares, which soared temporarily due to Chuseok, are expected to return to normal levels.”


Choi also noted, “For service prices, the temporary increase in hotel and condominium rates in October—driven by the Chuseok holiday and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit—will likely be reversed, contributing -0.13 percentage points to the month-on-month consumer price growth.”


wchoi@yna.co.kr


(End)


© Yonhap Infomax. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited. AI learning and utilization prohibited.

All content has been translated by AI.
Copyright © Yonhap Infomax Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited.